Will the Ukraine-Russia Conflict Be Resolved by the End of 2024?
The prospect of a resolution in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is the subject of much debate, especially as peace talks have been announced but have yet to materialize. While the tension remains high, with both sides showing no immediate signs of backing down, several factors are expected to influence the outcome of this protracted conflict. This article aims to explore these dynamics and provide a nuanced analysis of the situation.
Peace Talks and Leverage
Peace talks are indeed imminent between Ukraine and Russia, although their success remains uncertain. The incursion into Kursk by Russian forces seems to be a strategic move to gain leverage in these talks. However, without a significant demonstration of strength, it is unclear how effective these negotiations will be. For Ukraine, any peace talks will likely come after they have been pushed to their limits in a war of attrition.
The bottom line is that Ukraine has already put up a good fight, but they are likely to lose in the long run. Russia, on the other hand, has shown strategic patience and has the potential to prolong the war indefinitely. Even if Ukraine manages to gain some temporary successes, the sustained attrition will eventually prove too much to bear. As the saying goes: ‘If you can’t win, make sure they can’t win either.’
Ukraine as an Armed Bystander
The conflict has been exacerbated by the involvement of Western nations, particularly the United States. The war in Ukraine is not of Ukraine’s choosing, but rather imposed by them as a way to expand NATO's influence into Eastern Europe. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is often viewed as a pawn of the US, and his inability to develop a coherent strategy to defend his country adds to the complexity of the situation.
Ukraine's loss of soldiers and resources is partly due to the US's covert policy of disrupting the peace in countries bordering Russia. This policy has kept Ukraine's military in a state of high alert and constant struggle, with no clear endgame in sight. Furthermore, President Zelensky has been criticized for not having a sound plan beyond diplomatic maneuvering.
Wildcards and International Support
Several wildcards could influence the conflict's outcome. The ongoing stalemate, with neither side gaining a clear advantage, suggests that the war could continue for an extended period. International support, particularly from the West, plays a crucial role in prolonging the conflict. On the one hand, continued Western aid to Ukraine is keeping the country in the fight. Conversely, any significant reduction in this support could force Ukraine into a more negotiable position.
To a certain extent, 2024 may determine the overall trajectory of the conflict rather than its conclusion. Various experts believe that the coming year could see significant developments that could either push towards peace or intensify the conflict. Whether Russia can sustain the war for another year will be key. If they can, Ukraine may find itself in an unsustainable position, with all their resources and soldiers depleted.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
The Ukraine-Russia conflict stands at a crossroads, with peace talks looming but no guarantees of success. While 2024 could be a pivotal year, the outcome remains uncertain. Only time will tell whether the two nations can find a way to de-escalate the situation and achieve a lasting peace.