The Political Future of BJP in Bihar: Post-Nitish Re-entry in the Grand Alliance

The dynamics of Indian politics are complex and ever-evolving, particularly within the state of Bihar. Following Nitish Kumar's re-entry into the Grand Alliance, the future of the BJP in the region has become a focal point of political discourse. This article delves into the potential political ramifications and explores the growing internal challenges that the BJP faces in Bihar.

Challenging the Bond of Political Alliances

Political alliances are delicate constructs that can disintegrate with the slightest disturbance. When a party wields absolute and eternal power, not only does it corrupt itself but it also destabilizes the broader social and political system. In the context of Bihar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now facing significant changes as Nitish Kumar re-enters the political fray, leading to a realignment of the Grand Alliance.

Internal Relaxation and Long-Term Benefits

Sinceooting of political power can breed complacency, which is a cardinal enemy to a party's growth. The BJP has been internally relaxed about securing its position in Bihar, especially given the changing landscape. The re-entry of Nitish Kumar into the alliance has introduced a new dynamic that will favor the BJP in the long term. The security of the BJP in Bihar seems to be the most stable future prospect.

The 2014 and 2015 Election Comparisons

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP emerged victorious in Bihar with a strong showing, sweeping 22 seats with 29.4% of the vote share. However, the 2015 assembly elections saw a significant drop, with the BJP securing only 53 seats and 24.4% of the vote. This demonstrates the volatility and unpredictability of the political climate in Bihar. The same political scenario may play out this year, with the contest between the BJP and the Grand Alliance factions.

Polarity and Support for BJP

The Hindu population in Bihar, which constitutes a majority, is generally supportive of the BJP. The party's stance against minority communities, particularly Muslims and Christians, resonates strongly among the Hindu electorate, especially those from the upper and middle castes. Pro-Hindu organizations in the country actively aid the BJP by creating incidents that polarize the Hindu and Muslim communities, further cementing the support for the BJP in Bihar.

With more than 70 members of the legislative assembly in Bihar, the BJP will act as a strong opposition party, leveraging the support of prominent leaders such as RSS and other Hindu organizations. These groups effectively mobilize the populace by creating an atmosphere where the safety of Hinduism is compromised, thus binding the community to support the BJP.

Elections and Seat Projections

For the upcoming elections, it is projected that the BJP could secure more than 140 assembly seats and over 30 parliamentary seats in the Lok Sabha. This significant gain is attributed to the efforts of sister organizations, which create an environment where Hindus feel compelled to support the BJP.

There is no real danger for the BJP in Bihar, even with Nitish Kumar's re-entry into the fray. The political landscape in Bihar is such that no single faction can secure a clear victory. However, the BJP has been fortifying its position, becoming stronger over the years. Nitish's brand of politics, characterized by frequent alliances and a lack of reliability, has diminished his appeal among the public.

Conclusion

The political future of the BJP in Bihar appears robust, even as the Grand Alliance seeks to challenge its dominance. The BJP must continue to strengthen its leadership and maintain its strong relationships with key Hindu organizations to preserve its position in the region. Nitish Kumar's re-entry might initially pose a challenge, but the long-term gains for the BJP are significant.