The Impact of Abolishing the Electoral College: A Critical Analysis
The United States Electoral College has been a subject of debate for decades, with each presidential election bringing to light the nuances and potential flaws associated with its operation. An intricate web of political dynamics is at play if the Electoral College were to dissolve tomorrow, significantly altering the landscape of the 2020 presidential election and future elections.
Electoral Disparity and Voter Mobilization
Should the Electoral College magic-ly disappear, the nation would witness a massive shift in voter mobilization. Millions of Republican-leaning voters from liberal states such as California, New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois would suddenly come forward. Conversely, a smaller but significant number of Democratic voters would materialize in Republican-leaning states like Iowa, Oklahoma, and North Dakota. This statistic underscores a fundamental political reality: there are more closet Republicans in blue states than Democrats in red states.
Moreover, Democrats cannot rely on states like Texas and Florida, where they have largely failed to win over disillusioned Republican voters in past elections. The Democratic Party's prospects would thus largely depend on more robust voter turnout within blue states.
The Vanishing Electoral College
Despite the argument that the Electoral College is destined to disappear anytime soon, it remains a fundamental part of the U.S. Constitution. Any efforts to abolish it would face significant constitutional challenges and political obstacles. The Electoral College was designed to ensure a balance between smaller and larger states and to prevent tyranny of the majority. Its permanence in the Constitution means that its abolition is highly unlikely in the near future.
Political Implications for Both Parties
The abolishment of the Electoral College could dramatically alter the dynamics of presidential campaigns. In the absence of the Electoral College, candidates would likely focus more on densely populated and politically active areas rather than striving for a balanced national appeal. This change would significantly impact swing states, which are currently crucial for winning the presidency.
Scrutinizing the national popular vote reveals a consistent trend. From 1992 onwards, Democratic candidates have won the popular vote by an average of nearly 4.5 million votes, with the exception of George W. Bush in 2004, who benefited from being the incumbent and the strong emotional backdrop of 9/11. This data suggests a growing trend in voter preferences favoring the Democratic Party.
The Future of Political Parties
The abolishment of the Electoral College could lead to significant changes in the dynamics of major political parties. The Republican Party would face immense pressure to moderate its stance to remain competitive. Anchored far to the right, the party would likely shift towards a center-right position, attempting to bridge the gap with centrist voters.
In contrast, the Democratic Party, already well positioned to the left, might move towards a center-left position. However, maintaining this position without alienating their core voters would be a delicate balancing act. The result might be a more harmonious political landscape, where both parties reflect the broader population's preferences more accurately.
While this scenario might seem ideal, it depends crucially on the Republican Party's ability to address the extremists within its ranks. If the party continues to cater to these elements, its competitiveness would continue to decline, making it highly unlikely for a Republican to win future elections unless a Democratic candidate is exceptionally unpopular.
Conclusion
The abolishment of the Electoral College presents a complex set of challenges and opportunities for American politics. While the immediate impact might seem seismic, the longer-term consequences could reshape the political landscape, encouraging both parties to better reflect the nation's diverse views. However, the decisive factor will remain the willingness and ability of both major parties to adapt to changing voter preferences and political realities.