Support for a United Ireland in The Republic of Ireland and Its Economic Impact
The question of a United Ireland has been a topic of discussion for years, fueled by a mix of historical, political, and economic factors. The current economic strength of the Republic of Ireland (ROI) raises the question of how this potential reunification might affect the country economically.
Current Support for a United Ireland
According to multiple polls conducted between 2010 and 2019, approximately two-thirds of the population in the Republic of Ireland believe in the eventual reunification of Ireland. These polls, which include around 57%, 65%, and 66% of those sampled in favor, highlight a majority support for the idea.
The "Berlin (or Good Friday) Agreement" (BA-GFA) plays a crucial role in this context, providing a mechanism for Northern Ireland to agree on whether and when to hold a referendum on reunification. This agreement has significantly reduced the urgency of the issue in the ROI, although it is acknowledged that it may take up to 15 years for such a unification to occur.
How Would the Republic of Ireland Economy Cope?
Considering the strong economic performance of the Republic of Ireland, one might wonder how such a unification would impact the ROI's economy. The country's current GDP per capita of around $40,000 and its ranking as the second in the world for Human Development Index (HDI) suggest robust economic foundations.
The Human Development Report of 2020 by the OECD highlights that Ireland is the third strongest economy in the world, with a per capita GDP that far surpasses the UK and the USA. Additionally, Ireland's economy is consistently ranked as the best in the EU and second only to Luxembourg when considering GDP per capita.
In the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast a positive economic outlook for Ireland. The IMF predicts a recovery of 4.9% in 2021, and Ireland recorded a growth of 3.5% in 2020 despite the global economic downturn. Furthermore, a significant inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of $75 billion in the first half of 2020 signals the sustained economic resilience of the ROI.
Long-Term Implications
Considering a long-term perspective, the population of Ireland is projected to be 8.5 million by 2045, surpassing the pre-Irish Famine levels of 1845. This growth adds 3.5 million to the current population, making Ireland economically, socially, and culturally more diverse.
The ROI's economy, already strong, would further benefit from a larger and more diversified market. Northern Ireland's unique identity, however, might persist, but it is crucial to ensure that any unification is acceptable to the people of Northern Ireland. The economic impact of eventual reunification should be seen as a positive addition rather than a challenge.
Historical conflicts within Ireland are unlikely to diminish post-unity. Both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland have a certain comfort level with conflict and competition. We can adapt and integrate these dynamics more productively in a unified Ireland.
It is clear that the Republic of Ireland is well-equipped to handle a potential reunification, and the ROI will likely continue to maintain its strong economic standing even with the addition of Northern Ireland.