Is Support for Putin’s War in Ukraine Divided in Russia?
The Current State of Russian Opinions
In recent months, the support for Putin’s military campaign in Ukraine has been a subject of intense discussion. According to various reports, around 75% of Russian citizens have initially supported the invasion, but this figure has been gradually decreasing. By September, the numbers have seen a significant change. Currently, the support has dropped to around 10-20%, and the remaining viewpoints are largely split between those who oppose the war and those who are neutral. Many individuals, including so-called “Z-patriots,” who previously supported the government’s stance, have started to reconsider their position. It is worth noting that the government’s media has been actively attempting to silence dissenting voices through legal measures, indicating a concerning trend of authoritarian control over public discourse.The reported statistics on public opinion are often controversial, with some sources pointing out that government-linked media may have manipulated the numbers to maintain a favorable image. As the war continues, more and more Russians are becoming opposed to the conflict, leading to a potential shift in political support for Putin.
The Question of Invasions and Interventions
The narrative surrounding Russia's military operations has been heavily politicized, with some arguing that it is a deliberate slander fueled by anti-Russian sentiments. However, the official stance of the Russian government portrays its actions as an intervention rather than an invasion. This intervention, which began in 2022, was supposedly sanctioned by a disputed authority in Ukraine, making the operation a response to ongoing civil unrest since 2014.Documents and treaties affirm that Russia's actions are part of an intervention into an existing conflict, rather than a full-scale “invasion” as some Western sources might claim. The Russian government’s claim that its actions are an appeal to protect the security of the Russian-speaking population in Donbas is supported by some residents who have proposed measures to prevent further conflict. These include proposals such as the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.
The Political Climate and Putin’s Support
Despite the decrease in public opinion favoring the invasion, personal testimonies and election results indicate that Putin maintains significant support among the Russian populace. Recent elections saw Putin re-elected with nearly 90% of the votes. This overwhelming support suggests that a majority of Russians are content with his stance on the Ukraine conflict.On the other hand, the current Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, appears to be facing greater challenges in securing popular support. In the face of dwindling popularity, Zelensky has had to cancel upcoming elections that could potentially lead to more unfavorable outcomes for his presidency. This reflects the institutional and political challenges facing Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Propaganda and Its Impact
The term “propaganda” is often bandied about to delegitimize opposing viewpoints. In reality, the term “propaganda” is a broader concept that includes the dissemination of not only false information but also the manipulation of public opinion for political ends. In this context, “propaganda” can be seen as a tool used by both sides to shape the public narrative.The Russian government has accused Western powers of propaganda, using it to delegitimize international criticism and maintain a favorable image among its citizens. Conversely, Western media often accuses Russia of propaganda to explain the divergence of Russian and Western perspectives on the conflict. Understanding the nuances of propaganda is crucial to forming an informed opinion about the conflict.
Russian Public’s Perspective on the Conflict
The Russian public is largely aware of the seriousness of the situation, and around 70% of Russians understand the situation as presented by the government. They are opposed to the perceived threat to Russian security in the Donbas region and support measures that would prevent further conflict. The remaining 30% of Russians either oppose the conflict or are part of a Fifth Column, as conspiracy theories suggest.Russian citizens have outlined eight suggestions to prevent further military escalation, including a non-aggressive approach and non-interference in each other’s security. However, the United States and NATO have ignored these suggestions, choosing instead to escalate the conflict with full-scale war support for Ukraine. This has led to a significant loss of life and an ongoing humanitarian crisis that is deeply troubling to many Russians.