Why Do Ukrainians Think the EU Would Let Them In?

The prospect of Ukraine's membership in the European Union (EU) has long been a subject of debate and hope among Ukrainians. Despite numerous obstacles, the idea of Ukraine joining the EU remains a significant part of the national discourse. This article explores the historical context, current challenges, and the impact of political propaganda on Ukrainians' perceptions.

Historical Precedents and Current Challenges

Ukraine's potential EU membership is not a novel idea. Similar to the admission of other post-Communist countries, Ukraine has faced comparisons with Poland and Romania, which joined the EU in the early 21st century. Additionally, the Baltic states have been EU members since 2004. However, Ukraine's journey to the EU is fraught with challenges.

Although there are precedents, Ukraine faces significant obstacles. It is characterized by deep poverty, underdevelopment, and political dysfunction. The situation is further complicated by the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the Donbas region. The EU, however, seems less likely to engage in another round of expansion, focusing instead on improving its internal structures.

Despite these challenges, the idea of a prepared Ukraine joining a prepared European Union is not entirely dismissed. Geographically and culturally, Ukraine is a European country. Moreover, since the Euromaidan protests in 2014, Ukraine has taken steps to integrate with Europe and distance itself from its Russian orientation.

The Role of Political Propaganda

Ukrainians' perceptions of their potential EU membership have been significantly influenced by political propaganda sponsored by the EU and the United States. Protests in 2013 and 2014 were fueled by highly charged and misleading media representation of events.

During this time, the media supported the protests, presenting Yanukovich postponing the signing of the European Association Agreement as a drastic rejection of Europe. This was painted as a historic step that would deprive Ukraine of its European future and condemn the nation to Russian control. There were frequent hints that signing the agreement would lead to immediate visa-free access to the EU, a promise that was often misrepresented to inspire hope for European jobs and living standards.

While many protesters were aware of the exaggerations, the optimistic messaging certainly played a role in mobilizing protesters with dreams of improved jobs and living standards.

Current Perceptions and Future Hope

Today, Ukrainians generally understand that the timeline for EU membership is much longer than initially anticipated. Many who held onto the dream of rapid integration are either mildly ashamed or in complete denial. However, there remains a hope that Ukraine's path towards the EU is possible, however slow it may be.

The root cause of this hope can be traced back to a combination of factors, including persistent EU involvement, continued economic and political reforms, and a shared desire to evolve within the European context. Despite unrealistic expectations from the past, there is a genuine belief that progress is being made toward a more integrated future.

Conclusion

The question of Ukraine's EU membership remains a complex and evolving issue. While there are significant historical precedents, current challenges, and the impact of political propaganda, there is still hope among Ukrainians that their country can one day join the European Union.