If the United States Civil War Led to Two Countries, Would They Eventually Conflict?

In my opinion, the answer is no; the Confederate States of America (CSA) and the United States (USA) would not have faced off again. Once secession became a matter of fact rather than an idea, both regions of the country would likely have split into several smaller nations. This division could have led to a fragmented and constant state of tension among the various regions, but it is unlikely that a full-scale war would have ensued.

The Breakup of the Confederacy

Once the concept of secession was widely accepted, other regions might have followed suit. It is plausible that the Southern states would have fragmented into several smaller countries, similar to the Balkanization process that occurred in Central and Eastern Europe after World War I. This fragmentation would have become inevitable without the unifying force of the war.

For instance, Texas might have annexed Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona, only to devolve into a theocratic dictatorship. The vast majority of the land would have been controlled by a few cattle and oil barons, while the rest of the population would have been in a state of near-poverty.

A Chorus of Historical Fiction: Harry Turtledove’s Perspective

The idea that the USA and CSA would eventually clash again is echoed in a series of books by author Harry Turtledove. The first book in the series, How Few Remain, imagines a Southern victory in the Civil War and the subsequent Second War Between the States, triggered by the Confederacy's acquisition of two Mexican border states in the 1880s. Both the CSA and USA align themselves with European powers, leading to conflicts that span multiple "Great Wars."

This narrative highlights the likelihood of continued tension and potential conflict between the two nations. The support of Britain and France may have kept the South propped up, but it is improbable that these tensions would have remained dormant indefinitely.

Contestation and Escalation

Contention between the two would have been inevitable, given the roots of the conflict. More slaves would likely have escaped to the North, leading to tension over their return. Additionally, the South would have wanted to reclaim these former slaves, even with the new border. This could have resulted in border raids and attacks, further escalating the already strained relationship between the two nations.

Slavery, a fundamental cause of the Civil War, would continue to be a contentious issue, leading to ongoing tensions. While peaceful coexistence might have been possible under certain circumstances, the differences in ideology and economic structure would have made it difficult to achieve long-term harmony.

Conclusion

The Civil War fundamentally reshaped the USA and CSA. While a direct clash between these two nations following a divided outcome might not have occurred, the underlying tensions and the potential for conflict would have remained. Historical fiction, as illustrated in Harry Turtledove's series, paints a vivid picture of this ongoing contentious relationship.