Is Trump's rise a historical anomaly? If not, what are the best historical analogues?

The 1948 U.S. Presidential Election

The scenario of an ‘upset’ election, such as the 1948 U.S. presidential election, where a candidate not expected to win ends up winning, is not without precedent. One striking example is the 1828 election for President, where Andrew Jackson swept to office. Despite contemporary expectations, Jackson’s triumph was a groundbreaking moment, but by today’s standards, he was by no means an “outsider.”

Lessons from the Rise of Adolph Hitler

However, the parallels with figures such as Adolph Hitler are more striking. Hitler’s rise to power in 1933 was driven by a powerful message of nationalism, xenophobia, and the promise of restoring Germany’s greatness. His campaign tapped into deep-seated resentments towards Jewish and immigrant populations, and he amassed significant support, including from the Catholic Church, despite his non-Christian background. His administration enacted policies that created economic growth, albeit through state-directed spending, and suppressed opposition. The use of paramilitary groups like the SS to intimidate dissent mirrors Trump’s own tactics, where his administration has been criticized for its hostile approach towards critics and the opposition.

Contemporary Analogues in Politics

The list of political outsiders who have managed to ascend to power is longer than one might initially imagine. Figures like Viktor Orbán, Rodrigo Duterte, Silvio Berlusconi, Doug Ford, and Nigel Farage have all demonstrated how non-traditional candidates can rise to power through populist politics and outsider status. These individuals often leverage public discontent with the status quo, appealing to voters through divisive and populist rhetoric.

Joseph McCarthy and John McCain: Unconventional Paths to Power

While recognizing the validity of comparing Trump’s rise to other historical figures, it’s important to note that unconventional paths to power are not unheard of. Senator John McCain, though ultimately unsuccessful, provides an interesting case study. In Pakistan, the military has a near-monopoly on political power, with almost all retired army officers ascending to the presidency. Yet, in the United States, McCain managed to run for and win a major party nomination without facing ridicule for his service in the military. This reflects the flexible entry points for political outsiders in the U.S. political system.

Conclusion

Trum’s rise to power cannot be considered an entirely unprecedented event in the annals of American politics. Comparing his rise to historical precedents reveals a pattern of outsiders leveraging public dissatisfaction and unconventional narratives to achieve political success. While the specific context and methods may differ, the underlying dynamics and the impact on democratic institutions are troublingly similar.